Throughout 2019, geopolitics and trade conflicts were a fixture in the news. Now, as we near the end of the first month of 2020, there remain a number of geopolitical storylines that have yet to play out. These include the contentious Trump impeachment trial and November elections, ongoing turmoil in the Middle East (punctuated by the skirmish with Iran in early January), and continued friction between the US and China.
![]() We can see that the risk index took off during this period with the exception of a strong downward move in September (impeachment initiated and attack on Saudi oil facilities). This included a strong positive move at the beginning of 2020, despite the Soleimani assassination and subsequent murmurs of an imminent world war.
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US & Global Market Summary
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US & Global Market SummaryUS Market: 1/17/20 - 1/23/20![]()
Factor Update: US Model
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Factor Update: Worldwide Model ![]()
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Quantifying Geopolitical Risk
Omer Cedar
January
26,
2020
Categories
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